Key findings
Allianz Trade has analyzed recent developments and summarized the key findings.
Developments by region
The trend in corporate bankruptcies varies greatly from region to region. Some countries will see a clear increase in 2025, while others will see a normalization after exceptionally high figures in previous years. Asia and North America in particular have a major impact on the global total.
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🌏 Asia Pacific
In the Asia-Pacific region, several markets are contributing to the global increase.
In total, the number of bankruptcies in Asia is expected to grow by another 6% in 2026, after which the momentum will slow to +2% in 2027.
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🇺🇸 North America
North America presents a contrasting picture.
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🇪🇺 Western Europe
Western Europe is facing rising bankruptcies for the fourth year in a row.
Notable increases:
In Spain and the United Kingdom, on the other hand, the situation appears to be stabilizing.
A slight decline of 2% is expected in Western Europe for 2026, and as much as -5% in 2027.
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⚠️ Risk factor: trade conflict
The global trade conflict remains a significant risk.
In the US, the effective tariff level reached around 11% in August 2025 and could rise to 14% by the end of the year.
So far, the negative effects have been mitigated by shifts in trade flows and price reductions by exporters, but in 2026 this safety net may disappear, increasing pressure on companies.
Developments by sector
Not all industries are affected to the same extent by the current wave of bankruptcies.
Some sectors, such as construction and trade, are contributing above average to the increase, while others are struggling with structural changes and technological shifts.
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🏗️ Construction
The construction sector remains the main driver of global growth in bankruptcies.
As an interest-sensitive and cyclical sector, construction is particularly sensitive to current market conditions.
Historically, around 20% of all bankruptcies worldwide have been in construction.
In 2025, the construction sector’s share was:
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🚗 Automotive industry
The automotive sector is also going through a difficult phase.
The transition to new drive technologies, high investment costs, and global competitive pressure are putting small and medium-sized suppliers in particular under severe pressure.
Many of these companies are struggling to adapt to the shift towards electric mobility and digitization.
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🛍️ Services and trade
The services and trade sectors are also noteworthy.
Between January and September 2025, the following were recorded worldwide:
These figures show that bankruptcies are increasingly affecting major market players as well.
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🇪🇺 Situation in Europa
In Europe, the increase is spread across many sectors.
The hardest hit are:
Declines are only visible in a few niches, such as the information and communication sector and parts of the construction sector, where the decline can mainly be explained by a strong recovery period after the pandemic.
Global outlook
The coming years will remain challenging for companies around the world.
Allianz Trade expects some stabilization in the medium term, but the number of bankruptcies will remain high.
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🌍 Prospects 2025
At the same time, the number of major bankruptcies remains high.
The internal Allianz Trade indicator system for payment defaults shows a deterioration in key markets such as Germany, France, Italy, and the United States.
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📈 Prospects 2026
Analysts expect a further increase of 5% by 2026.
The main drivers are::
In Western Europe, on the other hand, a slight decline of 2% is expected. The reasons for this are:
A crucial factor for stabilization is the flow of credit.
For example, in order to stabilize the number of bankruptcies in Germany and the US, credit growth of around 2.5% would be necessary.
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📉 Prospects 2027
In 2027, there will be a slight easing for the first time in years.
The number of bankruptcies is expected to fall by 1%, but will still remain around 23% above the pre-Covid average (2016–2019).
Regional differences remain significant:
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⚠️ Possible risk scenario
One potential threat is a sudden end to the current AI boom.
If the technology stock markets were to experience a scenario similar to the bursting of the dot-com bubble, bankruptcies could increase significantly.
According to Allianz Trade, this could lead to:
Germany in focus
Germany is facing a new peak in corporate bankruptcies in 2025 and 2026.
Structural changes, a stagnating economy, and external shocks are putting medium-sized companies in particular under severe pressure.
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📊 Situation 2025
Allianz Trade expects more than 24,300 corporate bankruptcies in Germany by 2025.
This represents an increase of 11% compared to the previous year (21,812 cases).
The hardest-hit sectors are:
Industry is also increasingly coming into focus, including some large and well-known companies.
Main causes:
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📈 Prospects 2026 and beyond
In 2026, the number of bankruptcies is expected to rise further to around 24,500 cases (+1%). This is the highest level in twelve years. Despite a slight improvement, this remains around 23% above the pre-Covid average.
Stabilization would only be possible with a clear increase in credit growth, which would have to be at least 2.5%.
For 2027, Allianz Trade expects a slight decline to around 23,500 cases (-4%).
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⚙️ Impact of US import tariffs
The direct impact of US import tariffs on the German economy has been limited so far.
This is due to:
Nevertheless, secondary effects — such as price pressure or falling demand — remain a significant risk.
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🏗️ Sectoral overview
Within Germany, the construction sector stands out in particular: historically, around 17% of all German bankruptcies originate from this sector.
The trade sector has also been severely affected.
In addition, the automotive ecosystem is under severe pressure.
Small suppliers and trade and service companies in particular are struggling with the transition to electric mobility and digitalization.
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📉 According to Allianz Trade, these structural and cyclical challenges will cause the bankruptcy rate in Germany to remain well above the historical average in the coming years.
Source: allianz-trade.com
Photo: Shutterstock
